The famed 50-year old former KGB analyst, Igor Panarin has been making a prediction for over a decade: that the US will collapse, and be subject to internal civil war, in 2010. While his prediction seemed far fetched when he first started making it, most are now seeing a possibility in his words. Panarin is the dean one for Russia’s academy that trains diplomats, part of the Russian foreign ministry. Igor Panarin, being a leader of diplomats and of course not trying to necessarily spark an diplomatic incident himself, has continued to explain his views, as well as pointing out that it will cause Russia problems as well. Panarin predicts that a “moral” and “economic” collapse in America will lead to civil war and the dissolution of the Union. Though a previous war did occur, then President, Abraham Lincoln, was able to violently coerce the leaving states to re-enter the Union. This time, Panarin is predicting the end of the Union of states, the idea is more plausible should there not be such a divisive issue as slavery to justify warring on those states trying to leave. Panarin does seem to think that secession would leave to violence, not giving much room for a peaceful dissolution.

Panarin wasn’t just pandering to hardline communists, but also warning Russians about the problems an American dissolution would pose to them as well, “There’s a 55: 45 per cent chance right now that disintegration will occur. One could rejoice in that process, but if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario -- for Russia.” Panarin said.

Panarin points out “the dollar is not backed by gold” and believes that America’s massive debt to foreign countries will compromise it’s national sovereignty.